How can we make the European landscape more resilient to wildfires? Experts are testing out different prevention strategies on different areas through predictive models and computer simulations. One of them is Prof. Juan Picos from the University of Vigo (Spain), co-coordinator of the cross-border EU-funded FIREPOCTEP+ project. He will speak at the workshop ‘Nature-based solutions against forest wildfires’ on 12 May 2026 in the European Parliament, hosted by the Panel for the Future of Science and Technology (STOA).
How much are rising temperatures facilitating the intensity of wildfires, especially in the Iberian Peninsula?
Juan Picos: It’s not only the temperature. Equally important factors are relative humidity and wind, which are also starting to change in the summer season. Previously, we had more northwest-bound winds, and now we have more southern winds.
Another variable is dry storms with lightning, which can start a wildfire, and they come with the absence of rain.
Also, when the atmosphere is unstable, just before the thunderstorm, there is an upward wind that is reaching very high into the atmosphere, even up to 10,000 meters. These upwards winds are acting like a chimney. Similar to the chimneys in our homes, when they are open, the fire is more intense. This occurrence in the atmosphere can drive so-called convective wildfires, which behave more unpredictably and are not moved by the wind but by strong upward air currents.
One of the goals of your project FIREPOCTEP+ is to research and test different nature-based solutions for improving the resilience of the landscape. What are the main benefits of this approach?
Juan Picos: First, we need to learn which conditions lead to extreme wildfires and how to adapt to this new fire regime. With a very strict scientific approach and simulations, we are trying to prove that there are areas in the landscape that are more prone to wildfire spreading. Next, we are trying to learn more about them and how to make them less prone to wildfires.
We cannot change the whole landscape at the same time, so one of the goals of the project is to identify areas suitable for different prevention strategies. We call them strategic management zones.
To manage a particular landscape in a preventive way and decrease the amount of biomass to reduce the intensity of fire, we can increase grazing activity, introduce wild mammals or use preventive low-intensity burning of vegetation.
If we have a very dense forest area, we can do some thinning. One of the solutions is to re-establish some of those cultivations that we abandoned during the last century, so we can allow specific areas to be transformed from wild shrubland or dense natural forest into, for example, a chestnut or almond orchard. This kind of vegetation is less prone to fuelling intense wildfires, and it could also be agriculturally beneficial and economically viable. Additionally, we could combine this with sheep or cow grazing in the middle of those trees.
One of the best things about this project is that we are a consortium. We have people from the university, local associations and authorities and foundations that represent different stakeholders. And we have to achieve the results that are both scientifically sound and can be implemented in the territory. It’s very important to strengthen the knowledge of local citizens on how to do long-term fire management in that particular environment.
How challenging is it to scientifically test these solutions?
Juan Picos: We use predictive models to simulate the fire in particular areas with or without these kinds of solutions and observe the difference. We can simulate different climate and meteorological conditions that could happen in the future.
We are testing several models, but one of the main problems is not the model itself. A wildfire is not difficult to predict if you have information about the territory. The problem is, we don’t always have this data. Today we have more improved climate and meteorological data, but now we are trying to map the vegetation, learn what kind of vegetation exist on particular area and how dry it is.
We are relying on remote sensing, LiDAR and several technologies that can produce a digital twin of the territory in which our model of the fire can spread and give us a more accurate solution. Our technology now allows us to perform thousands of simulations. For some of the regions, we simulate tens of thousands of wildfires in order to see where the fire might become the most destructive depending on different conditions.
How hard is it to implement these solutions?
Juan Picos: When they see the possible outcome, local stakeholders are more easily convinced that they, too, need to be more proactive. For example, they know that having two more hours to evacuate or to prepare the village is the difference between life and death. We are helping them implement pilot activities, and we are doing that along with the firefighters, civil protection and the regional authorities, who can, for example, increase the subsidy for particular crops that can have a preventive effect in those vulnerable areas.
We are in the last stages of the project, and one of the tasks is creating a certain brand or label for those farmers who are doing preventive productive activities. In this way, consumers could choose to buy their products and support the prevention of extreme wildfires.