Agricultural economist Hermann Lotze-Campen leads climate resilience research at the world-famous Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and he’s also a professor of sustainable land use and climate change at Humboldt University in Berlin. In this interview, he explains more about the relationships between land use, agriculture, climate and our food – and gives us a glimpse into the future of farming.
What is the focus of your work on climate and agriculture?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: In our land-use modelling working group at PIK we develop long-term future scenarios on climate impacts on agriculture as well as emission mitigation in the agriculture and food sector. Our scenarios are based on quantitative computer models, and we cover the whole world. The EU-27 is one specific economic region in our global model.
How is agriculture in Europe likely to evolve in the coming decades?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: More frequent climate extremes, e.g. heat waves, droughts, and heavy rains, will become more and more challenging for agricultural producers. However, Europe will still be modestly affected by climate change, compared to other world regions.
Moreover, farmers have some possibilities to adapt, for example, by adopting more diverse crop rotations and new crop varieties. Further technological progress, such as through plant breeding and soil management, as well as diverse international trade relations will continue to play an important role in the future.
Can sustainable land use help to reach climate and biodiversity targets?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Key elements of future sustainable land use that can contribute are:
- dietary change towards more plant-based and less animal-based food products, which will reduce the demand for land for animal feed production;
- agricultural production needs to become much more environmentally friendly, e.g. through more efficient fertilizer use, precision farming, including irrigation, and more diverse crop rotations, including nitrogen-fixing legumes;
- and finally, more land needs to be taken out of production and effectively protected for biodiversity conservation.
Does sustainable land use mean less land for agriculture and/or undermining food security? How is land use prioritised?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Sustainable land use cannot be achieved without strong shifts in food consumption towards plant-based diets. This will lead to reduced land use for agriculture, and more flexibility for biodiversity protection and alternative land uses, e.g. for bio-materials and renewable energy production. For this, a long-term comprehensive policy strategy with coherent policy bundles is necessary.
What does a climate-friendly diet look like?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: This has been well defined by the EAT-Lancet Commission in 2019. The Planetary Health Diet is largely plant-based, with lower shares of meat and dairy products. Recommended meat consumption would be around 300g per person per week. Current meat consumption in Germany, for example, is at 1000-1200g per person per week.
How have you seen your field of study change over the last twenty years?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Twenty years ago, climate change impacts and the challenges for ambitious emission reduction in the agriculture and food sector were not widely discussed, neither in research nor in the wider public. Now these topics are central to many debates.
Limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and more sustainable development will be impossible to achieve without a large-scale food system transformation.
Are you optimistic about our ability to adapt to climate change?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: In high-income countries, many options for climate change adaptation can be applied. For many low-income countries, there will be huge challenges.
Climate change adaptation requires adoption of a wide range of improved production technologies, but also a strong level of international cooperation. This includes international trade, knowledge and technology transfer, but also social safety nets and compensation schemes for the poorest people.
What can be done at EU level to support sustainable land use?
Hermann Lotze-Campen: The Food System Economics Commission (FSEC) has recently laid out five policy priority areas, which are also highly relevant for the EU:
- provide incentives for dietary change towards more plant-based food consumption;
- reform the Common Agricultural Policy to better contribute to climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection;
- introduce new policy instruments – for example, including the agricultural sector into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS);
- support research and innovation in the agriculture and food sector;
- and develop social safety nets and compensation schemes for poor and vulnerable food consumers and producers.